The Guide · How The Contrarian Works
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How The Contrarian works

The full pipeline, step by step: how it decides what’s unusual, what a z-score actually means, exactly what lands in your channel, and how macro releases are covered.

▸

Getting set up

Fully self-serve, anyone with the Manage Server permission can configure the bot themselves, live, no waiting on anyone.

01

Add the bot

Join the official Discord and get it added to your server, or run /request_help if you'd rather have a hand with it.

02

Run /setup

Pick your alert channels from a menu, no typing, no navigating to the right channel first. Alerts start on the next scan. Ping roles and pause/resume are self-serve too.

03

Start free

Three tickers, same pipeline and confidence bar as premium. Upgrade with /activate_premium whenever you want the full 35-ticker watchlist and macro coverage.

01

How it decides to alert you

Every pass through this pipeline runs before anything gets posted. Most tickers drop out along the way. That's deliberate. The bot would rather stay quiet than cry wolf.

01

Scan the news

Pulls fresh financial headlines across the watchlist every 5 minutes during market hours.

02

Flag unusual attention

Compares today's mention count for each ticker against its own recent history (trailing 30 days). A spike has to be both statistically unusual for that ticker and clear a minimum mention count, so one passing mention on a quiet ticker stays quiet.

03

Check the tape

Pulls real price and volume data for flagged tickers. A mention spike with no price or volume movement behind it is a weaker signal.

04

Find a historical analog

Compares the current setup against a small library of past setup archetypes with similar price, volume, and attention characteristics.

05

AI writes both sides

Claude reads the headlines and data, then writes the dominant narrative, a bull case, a bear case, a key risk to watch, and a confidence score out of 100.

06

Alert only above threshold

Posts to the server's configured channel if confidence clears that server's bar. New servers start at 0, so everything posts. Raise it with /set_confidence_threshold (55 is recommended) and anything below it is discarded silently.

02

Reading a z-score

A z-score just measures how far today's mention count is from this ticker's own normal (in standard deviations, not raw numbers). The bar is 2 for a typical ticker, plus a floor of at least 3 mentions that day, so a statistically "unusual" single mention on an otherwise-silent ticker can’t trigger an alert on its own.

Both numbers scale with how much coverage a ticker normally gets, because one setting can’t serve a watchlist that spans NVDA at ~17 mentions a day and a quiet name at under one. Heavily covered tickers use a lower z of 1.6 with a floor of 8, their baseline is sampled well enough that a smaller multiple of the deviation is still real. Thinly covered ones use 2.5, because when a ticker’s standard deviation is a fraction of an article, a single story looks like a two-sigma event when it isn’t.

z-score Roughly means
0 Exactly typical for this ticker, no spike.
1 Mildly elevated, happens fairly often, not flagged.
2 flag The threshold for a typical ticker, meaningfully unusual, happens under ~5% of days by chance. Still needs to clear that ticker's mention floor to actually alert. Heavily covered names flag from 1.6; thin ones need 2.5.
3 Rare, under ~0.3% of days.
4–5 Very rare under a clean normal-distribution assumption. In practice, either a genuinely major news event, or a math artifact (thin history, one huge outlier day skewing the baseline).
Drag to see how rare that is z = 2.0

At z = 2.0, a spike this size (in either direction) happens in roughly 4.6% of days by pure chance, right at the z-score line for a typical ticker, though an alert also has to clear that ticker's mention floor.

03

Anatomy of a stock alert

Here's what actually lands in your channel when a ticker clears the bar.

example, illustrative, not a live signal
📊 Market Alert: XYZ
Signal
Price / Volume
▲ +8.4% ($142.37) · 3.2× normal volume
Attention Spike
14 mentions today · z-score 3.1
20-Day Price Chart (attached as an image on every alert)
Dominant Narrative
Speculation about a surprise product announcement is driving elevated chatter.
🐂 Bull Case
If the rumor is confirmed, this opens a new revenue line and could re-rate the stock.
🐻 Bear Case
Rumor is unconfirmed; a letdown on the actual announcement could trigger a sharp pullback.
⚠️ Key Risk to Watch
Official confirmation or denial expected within days.
Closest Historical Analog
Rumor-driven pre-announcement spike (distance 0.12), historically mixed, roughly half faded within a week.
62
62 / 100
Moderate confidence, clears the 55 bar, not a strong signal.
AI Market Intelligence Engine, not financial advice
04

Macro & economic calendar alerts

Separate from individual stocks, the bot also tracks the handful of US economic releases that can move the whole market at once (things like Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI, and Fed rate decisions), plus upcoming earnings dates for the watchlist itself. This runs on its own schedule, independent of stock market hours, since releases like NFP land at 8:30am ET, before the 9:30 open.

This week’s releases, live: forecasts, what printed, and a countdown to the next one.Macro desk ▸
⏱

Heads-up, ~30 minutes out

A short notice with what's forecast and what the previous reading was, so you know something's coming.

⚡

Breakdown, the moment it lands

As soon as the actual number is reported, the AI compares it to forecast and explains what that kind of surprise typically means for risk sentiment and equities.

📅

Earnings-date heads-ups

The day before a watchlist ticker reports earnings, the bot posts a heads-up with the report date and EPS estimate. Check what's coming anytime with /upcoming_earnings.

example, illustrative, not a live signal
📰 Released: Non-Farm Payrolls (USD)
Beat
Actual
215K
Forecast
180K
Previous
150K
Headline Take
Payrolls came in well above expectations, suggesting a still-resilient labor market.
Market Read
A beat like this often pressures rate-cut expectations and can weigh on equities short-term while boosting the dollar.
⚠️ Key Risk to Watch
Watch the next CPI print to see if hot labor data is feeding into inflation.
AI Market Intelligence Engine, not financial advice
05

Verified by Discord

Verified Application
APP

The Contrarian has completed Discord's verification review, the process Discord requires of applications operating at scale across many servers. Look for the same checkmark + APP tag next to the bot's name in Discord.

06

Join the Community

Official Discord Server
JOIN ↗

Ask questions, see example alerts, and request setup for your own server. This is the fastest way to reach the owner if The Contrarian isn't in your server yet.

New Heights, for traders by traders
Made By:
New Heights
For Traders By Traders
Full watchlist
35 tickers, scanned every 5 minutes during market hours
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Free plan: AAPL, AMD, AMZN. Premium unlocks all 35, customizable on request.
Upgrade to premium
$19.99/mo per server · full 35-ticker watchlist + macro alerts
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After payment, Whop gives you a license key, run /activate_premium with it in your server to unlock instantly.